# 1 Markets
The Indian equity market ended the week on a cautious note with the BSE Sensex falling about 401 points to 85,232 and the NSE Nifty 50 slipping 124 points to 26,068 on November 21, 2025. Weak global cues, domestic profit-booking, and sectoral pressure notably in metals, PSU banks, and realty drove the declines, while mid- and small-cap stocks faced sharper corrections. Despite the downturn, markets remain near record highs supported by strong defensive sectors.
The Indian bond market last week saw yields on the 10-year government securities holding steady around 6.54%, trading in a narrow range amid investors weighing RBI support and subdued inflation data. A weaker rupee to a record low pressured yields higher, with the 10-year benchmark ending at 6.57%.
The S&P 500 fell about 2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 3.2% for the week, pressured by declines in high-performing tech stocks like NVIDIA Corporation. Good results from NVIDIA reversed the trend and the market finished Friday on a positive note with the Dow up 1.1% and the S&P 500 gaining nearly 1%.
The US bond market last week saw yields on the 10-year Treasury note steady around 4.07%, with a slight decline amid mixed economic data and ongoing uncertainty about Fed rate cuts.
# 2 RBI/Banking
2.1 As per CRISIL report released last week,
- Home loan AUM growth for non-bank lenders set to slow to 12–13% in FY26, from 14% last year, despite supportive demand drivers.
- Aggressive pricing and market push by public sector banks is squeezing HFCs, with sub-9% rate home loans jumping to 60% of bank portfolios.
- Home loans remain 59% of non-bank mortgage AUM, making the slowdown particularly impactful.
- Overall mortgage AUM growth to hold at 18–19% in FY26, supported by stronger wholesale lending.
- Loans against property growth to decelerate to 27–29% from 32% in FY25.
Competitive intensity, not demand fundamentals, is now the biggest brake on non-bank mortgage growth.
2.2 As per CareEdge ratings report released last week,
- Credit growth at 11.7% y-o-y outpaces deposit growth at 9.7%, with expectations of stronger deposit mobilisation in H2FY26.
- Asset quality continues to strengthen, with GNPA ratio improving to 2.1% in Q2FY26 (from 2.6% a year earlier), driven by 11.1% y-o-y decline in GNPAs to Rs 4.05 lakh crore.
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- GNPA forecast to stay within 2.3–2.4% by end-FY26, indicating continued resilience.
- NNPA ratio stable at 0.5% for third straight quarter, aided by 9.9% y-o-y decline in NNPAs to Rs 0.88 lakh crore.
- Sequentially, GNPAs down 4.2% q-o-q and NNPAs down 5.1% q-o-q, reinforcing sustained system-wide improvement.
- Public sector banks show broad-based asset quality gains across segments due to lower slippages, write-offs, and tighter underwriting, especially in retail.
- Risks remain in low-ticket unsecured personal loans and microfinance, along with external and regulatory headwinds (U.S. tariffs, global slowdown, domestic interventions).
Overall, the banking system’s asset quality remains on a strengthening trajectory, though pockets of unsecured and microfinance stress warrant continued vigilance.
2.3 IBBI has proposed changes to improve transparency
- Designed a standardized valuation report format for distressed assets to boost transparency, credibility, and consistency
- Stronger disclosures on risks, conflicts of interest, and professional judgement.
The move aims to cut litigation, support realistic negotiations, and enable better rescue vs liquidation decisions.
2.4 Banking Sector Performance Analysis Q2 FY26
Loan Growth Trends:
- Indian banks showed robust credit expansion with an aggregate loan growth around 10-16% among major lenders.
- Corporate lending growth remained subdued, with mid-single-digit growth, reflecting cautious corporate borrowing amid limited large project financing.
- SME loans growing strongly in double digits and retail segments like mortgages, vehicle loans, and gold loans showing sustained traction.
Asset Quality Insights:
- Overall NPAs are at multi-year lows, particularly among large banks, indicating cleaner loan books.
- Agricultural loans carry higher NPA levels compared to other retail segments, but signs of easing stress in agri. loans have emerged.
- SME lending, though experiencing higher NPAs relative to retail, remains below historical averages, highlighting a manageable level of stress.
- Unsecured retail credit (credit cards, personal loans) saw some slippages, but banks responded with tighter underwriting and collection efforts, leading to improvement in asset quality metrics.
Margins and Profitability:
- Banks experienced margin pressures with net interest margins (NIMs) compressing due to the combination of rate cuts lowering asset yields and deposit repricing lagging behind, keeping funding costs elevated.
- The 100-bps cut in the CRR and lowering deposit costs were key factors alleviating margin pressures by reducing banks’ funding expenses.
A resilient growth cycle is intact, but margin squeeze and selective pockets of stress show that Indian banks are navigating this phase with cautious optimism rather than unbridled strength.
# 3 SEBI
3.1 SEBI is set to review mutual fund and stockbroker rules at its upcoming board meeting, building on recent consultation papers.
- Key changes include clearer TER components, separating brokerage costs, and resetting permissible brokerage limits.
- Stockbroker regulations from 1992 will be modernised, including a formal definition for algorithmic trading and removal of outdated provisions.
- The board will additionally evaluate recommendations from a committee on strengthening conflict-of-interest safeguards within SEBI.
# 4 Economy
4.1 Govt last week notified the new labour codes- key highlights
- India’s new labour codes consolidate 29 existing laws into four unified codes, extending minimum wage, social security and formal employment protections to an estimated 400 million workers across formal, informal and gig sectors.
- A central feature is the redefinition of “wages” so that at least 50% of total remuneration must be treated as basic pay for the purpose of provident fund, gratuity, pension and other statutory benefits, bringing consistency across all codes and limiting the earlier practice of depressing the basic component through allowances.
- The codes formally recognise gig and platform workers for the first time.
- Online aggregators and marketplaces in sectors such as food delivery, ride-hailing, quick commerce, domestic services and e-commerce must now contribute 1–2% of annual turnover (capped at 5% of payouts to workers) into a dedicated welfare fund.
- Alongside this, the framework mandates equal pay for women, gratuity for fixed-term staff after one-year, double wages for overtime, free annual health check-ups for workers above 40, and stronger health and safety norms in hazardous sectors.
- For employees, the reforms are expected to materially enhance retirement and social security benefits through higher PF and gratuity accruals, wider gratuity eligibility, and improved workplace protections.
- For employers, they imply higher statutory costs, payroll restructuring, and potentially lower take-home pay for some employees within a constant CTC, as well as increased compliance and transition burdens—particularly for MSMEs and labour-intensive industries.
- Sectoral implications will be felt across textiles, logistics, IT/ITES, mining, plantations and exports, with expanded night-shift opportunities for women subject to safety safeguards.
Ultimately, the new labour codes mark a pivotal shift toward a more formal, equitable and socially secure workforce, even as their true impact will hinge on smooth implementation and industry adaptation.
4.2 As per S&P Global report released last week,
- Private sector expansion slowed, with the Composite PMI easing to 59.9, its weakest in six months, marking a third straight monthly decline in momentum.
- Manufacturing dragged overall activity, with PMI falling to 57.4, a nine-month low, on softer new orders, subdued domestic demand, heavy rains, and tougher global pricing competition.
- Services provided support, with activity rising to 59.5, cushioning the manufacturing slowdown.
- Export momentum weakened, with new export orders at the slowest pace since March, impacted by 50% U.S. tariffs; India’s trade deficit hit a record high and exports to the U.S. fell ~9%.
- Business confidence and hiring softened, with optimism at the lowest since mid-2022 and job creation at a 1.5-year low.
Overall, the data signals an economy still expanding solidly but clearly losing steam, with cooling demand, softer exports, fading confidence, and easing inflation tilting the outlook toward policy support.
4.3 As per data released by Govt. last week,
- Core sector growth flat in October — weakest in 14 months after steady deceleration from August.
- Output contracted in four backbone inputs: coal (-8.5%), crude oil (-1.2%), natural gas (-5%), electricity (-7.6%).
- Some resilience in cement (5.3%), fertilisers (7.4%) and refinery products (4.6%) aided by capex and restocking.
- Weakness signals cooling domestic production pipelines and pressure on export-linked industries.
- Why there is divergence between PMI and IIP?
- Core sector data = hard output, revealing real-time slowdown in upstream industries.
- PMI = forward-looking sentiment, often turns ahead of actual production.
- Businesses may be anticipating demand recovery not yet visible in output numbers.
Hard data signals softening industrial fundamentals, while surveys suggest optimism—leaving the coming months to determine which story prevails.
4.4 As per data released by Govt last week
- Goods trade deficit hit an all-time high of $41.7B in October, far above expectations, driven by surging imports and weakening merchandise exports.
- Merchandise exports fell to $34.4B, reflecting weak global demand, though services exports provided relief with strong growth.
- Overall goods imports jumped to $76.1B, led by petroleum, electronics, machinery, and precious metals—raising risks for the rupee, reserves, and inflation.
- Gold imports tripled to $14.7B despite already elevated prices, fuelled by festive restocking and speculative buying; silver imports also soared on industrial demand.
- US tariffs at 50% dampened exports to India’s largest market, worsening pressure on labour-intensive sectors and widening the deficit.
The record deficit signals a mounting external vulnerability, with gold frenzy and US tariffs exposing India’s trade balance to both speculative shocks and geopolitical headwinds
4.5 Moody’s in its report released last week
- Expects India to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies
- Projects GDP growth of 7% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, supported mainly by strong domestic demand and continued infrastructure spending.
- Export performance has held up despite reduced shipments to the US, aided by diversification.
- While the outlook for India and the broader Asia-Pacific region remains stable, Moody’s notes that cautious private sector capex could weigh on longer-term growth momentum.
4.6 The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has notified the Capital Gains Accounts (Second Amendment) Scheme, 2025, updating and modernising the 37-year-old Capital Gains Account Scheme to enhance taxpayer convenience and align with current digital practices. Key Highlights
- The amendment extends the scheme to cover capital gains arising from the shifting of industrial undertakings from urban areas to Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under Section 54GA.
- The revised scheme formally recognises electronic modes of payment, including:
credit and debit cards, net banking, IMPS, UPI, RTGS, NEFT, and BHIM Pay. - Electronic account statements will now hold the same status as traditional passbooks, reducing paperwork and improving access.
- The scope of eligible institutions to place deposits under Capital Gains,has been broadened to include any banking company under the Banking Regulation Act, 1949.
A modernised, digitally enabled scheme should ease compliance and broaden access, strengthening the incentive framework for capital gains reinvestment.
# 5 PE/VC
5.1 PMS and AIF assets under management have grown at a 31% CAGR over the past decade, rising to ₹23.43 lakh crore from ₹1.54 lakh crore.
- PMS assets alone expanded nearly sevenfold to ₹8.37 lakh crore from ₹1.27 lakh crore in 10 years.
- The number of SEBI-registered portfolio managers increased significantly to 495.
- AIF commitments recorded a stronger 49% CAGR, jumping from ₹27,484 crore to ₹15.05 lakh crore over the decade.
Growth reflects rising investor demand for private equity, venture capital, private credit, real estate, and other non-public market strategies.