# 1 Markets
Indian equity markets showed modest gains last week with the Nifty 50 extending its winning streak to five sessions, closing above 25,900, while the Sensex edged up to a record closing high near 84,563 points. DIIs were net buyers, offsetting FII selling, with PSU banks and select financials leading the rally boosted by the NDA’s decisive Bihar election victory. However, market breadth weakened with profit-taking in small and mid-caps, keeping the overall tone cautiously positive amid mixed sectoral action and global uncertainties.
Last week, Indian bond markets saw yields inch higher, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 6.53% amid anticipation of a large debt supply and an unexpected RBI cash withdrawal operation. Demand for long-term bonds weakened, reflecting market caution ahead of upcoming bond auctions and mixed macroeconomic signals.
The US equity market last week experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq Composite suffering its worst weekly drop since April, falling about 4% due mostly to a tech stock sell-off tied to AI sector concerns. Despite this, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones finished the week mostly flat to slightly lower. US bond markets saw the 10-year Treasury yield hover slightly above 4.1%, rising initially on reduced expectations of a December Fed rate cut before easing somewhat as risk aversion increased amid economic data uncertainties.
# 2 RBI / Banking
2.1 As per S&P Global Market Intelligence outlook on commercial banks released last week,
- Retail loans have outpaced corporate lending since FY21 across major Indian banks, driven by strong post-pandemic household credit demand.
- SBI’s retail book grew ~43% between Mar 2021 and Sep 2023, compared to ~19% growth in corporate credit; peers like Bank of Baroda (+61%) and Axis Bank (+57%) show similar trends.
- Retail loans’ share of domestic credit rose only marginally across major banks; HDFC Bank saw a spike due to its merger with HDFC Ltd.
- Five major banks accounted for ~60% of incremental retail credit (2017–2023), though their dominance is gradually easing.
- Unsecured advances climbed to 35% of retail loans in 2023, up from 25% in 2007.
- Both secured and unsecured retail segments grew faster than overall credit even after pandemic support was withdrawn.
- FY23 bank credit grew 15%, led by 20.6% growth in personal loans, while industry credit grew only 5.7%.
- Higher credit card outstanding among below-prime borrowers points to deeper credit penetration into riskier segments.
- Asset quality remains stable, with no major structural shift in retail credit composition.
India’s retail credit boom remains resilient, but its growing tilt toward unsecured lending makes vigilant regulatory oversight essential to safeguard future stability.
2.2 RBI announced Relief Measures 2025, effective immediately, to support exporters facing global trade disruptions. This includes:
- Four-month moratorium on all term-loan repayments and interest recovery on working-capital loans from 1 Sept–31 Dec 2025; interest will accrue on a simple interest basis, with repayment deferred.
- Accrued interest during the moratorium may be converted into a funded interest term loan, repayable between 1 Apr–30 Sept 2026.
- Working-capital support:
- Banks can recalculate drawing power by reducing margins or reassessing working-capital needs.
- Pre-shipment and post-shipment credit period extended to 450 days for credit disbursed till 31 Mar 2026.
- Packing credit taken before 31 Aug 2025 can be liquidated through alternate legitimate sources, including domestic sales or substituted export orders.
- Only exporters in the 20 tariff-impacted sectors (textiles, leather, chemicals, plastics, metals, machinery, gems & jewellery, etc.) with standard export-credit accounts as of 31 Aug 2025 can avail the relief.
- Availing relief will not trigger NPA classification or affect credit history.
- Government-aligned measures:
- Export realisation period extended to 15 months (from 9 months).
- Shipment timeline extended to 3 years from advance receipt.
- ₹2,000 crore Fund to operationalise new Credit Guarantee Scheme for Exporters (CGSE). Fund will enable ₹20,000 crore in additional credit to eligible exporters, including MSMEs, via NCGTC.
- Scheme offers 100% credit guarantee to Member Lending Institutions to boost export-linked lending.
Combined RBI and government measures (credit guarantee for exporters) provide critical liquidity relief, easing cash-flow pressures from global headwinds and tariff disruptions, while enabling continued working-capital access and preventing deterioration of asset quality.
2.3 As per report released last week, by S&P Global ratings
- Global banks face intensifying challenges from rapid digitalization, AI adoption, climate change, and rising cyber threats, stressing business models and risk frameworks.
- S&P expects widening performance gaps between stronger and weaker banks as risks evolve.
- AI-native entrants are gaining share; banks’ competitive strength will increasingly hinge on effective AI integration.
- AI will drive higher capex and operating costs initially, but long-term gains may come through efficiency, stronger brands, and improved customer loyalty.
- AI adoption introduces technical, operational, and third-party risks even as it enhances risk detection, monitoring, and pricing.
- Global bank credit losses expected to rise from USD 609 bn (2025) to USD 655 bn (2026) (+7.5%) and USD 683 bn (2027) (+4.3%), driven mainly by Asia-Pacific—especially China’s SMEs and unsecured consumer credit amid tariff uncertainties.
Overall, the sector stands at a pivotal juncture where AI-driven competitiveness and disciplined risk management will increasingly separate industry leaders from laggards.
# 3 SEBI
3.1 SEBI issued several key regulatory announcements and directions last week – two of which are prominent touching IPO reforms and digital gold advisory
3.1.1 Pre IPO Reforms – draft proposals
- SEBI proposes seamless lock-in of existing shareholders’ pledged shares—removing the current requirement to clear pledges before enforcing the six-month lock-in and eliminating a major source of last-mile IPO delays. Intends to allow depositories to mark pledged pre-IPO shares as non-transferable for the mandatory six-month lock-in period
- Lock-in rules may be eased for all existing shareholders except promoters and other large, decision-influencing holders.
- A new concise summary of key disclosures would replace the abridged prospectus, give investors upfront clarity and reduce the complexity of offer documents.
- SEBI emphasises transparency and robust disclosures, reiterating that it does not intervene in valuation.
Reforms proposed amid a booming IPO market—300+ companies have raised over $16.5 billion in 2025.The changes aim to cut procedural friction, accelerate IPO timelines, and improve investor accessibility at a time of heightened primary-market activity.
3.1.2 Advisory on Digital Gold and Unregulated Products
SEBI continued its investor protection push, issuing a cautionary press release stating that “digital gold” platforms are not regulated, and such investments fall outside SEBI’s protection framework. Investors are urged to use only SEBI-regulated avenues like Gold ETFs, exchange-traded derivatives, and EGRs for gold exposure.
What caused the growth?
- Fintechs (Paytm, JFS, Jar, InCred, DigiGold, Gullak, etc.) are aggressively pushing digital gold with ultra-low entry points (₹10) and frictionless UPI onboarding.
- Digital gold purchases via UPI doubled in 2025, reflecting mass adoption despite low awareness of underlying risks.
- Digital gold offers platforms attractive margins and cross-sell opportunities relative to regulated products like gold ETFs/EGRs.
Regulatory Red Flags
- SEBI warns investors that digital gold is unregulated, not classified as a security or commodity derivative, exposing users to counterparty and operational risks.
- RBI officials highlight AML/KYC lapses and concerns over whether platforms hold adequate physical gold reserves.
- Recent cases of withdrawal delays and cybersecurity breaches underline systemic vulnerabilities.
- Sudden delivery demands revealed that some players were not fully backed by physical reserves, raising risks of market distortion.
- Smaller, lesser-known apps pose heightened risks due to weak audits, limited disclosures, and questionable gold-backing.
Digital gold’s rapid rise shows its appeal, but without clear regulation and stronger safeguards, convenience may be masking risks that could soon reshape the entire market trajectory.
3.2 Two years after the Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act was passed by parliament, the Centre notified the long-awaited administrative rules that are required for putting the law into effect on Friday. They will regulate the processing, protection and governance of personal data in the country.
Key Features
- Clear, plain-language consent requirements; independent, specific, informed consent mandatory.
- Mandatory reporting to the Data Protection Board of India within 72 hours.
- Mandatory deletion when purpose is fulfilled; 48-hour notice to users before deletion cycles; default deletion after one year unless required otherwise.
- Verifiable parental consent, for children, ban on behavioural tracking and targeted ads for <18.
- A government committee may declare categories of data non-exportable.
Impact
- Empowers citizens with stronger rights—access, correction, withdrawal, and ultimately deletion of personal data.
- Raises accountability of organisations via heavy penalties, tight breach-reporting timelines, and strict storage/deletion norms.
- Forces redesign of consent architecture, data-handling workflows, and security systems across industry.
- Strengthens children’s safety by eliminating tracking and targeted advertising.
India’s DPDP regime marks a decisive shift from fragmented data practices to a disciplined, rights-driven, globally aligned framework that will fundamentally elevate trust, accountability and resilience across the digital economy.
# 4 Economy
4.1 As per Govt data release last week
- Retail inflation hit a historic low of 0.25% in October 2025 — the lowest since the CPI series began in January 2012.
- The fall reflects a powerful base effect, partial GST rate-cut impact, and deep food-price deflation, rather than broad-based price easing.
- Food & beverages inflation contracted 3.7%, following a 1.4% contraction in September; this is the fourth contraction in seven months
- Wholesale prices fell 1.21% YoY in October 2025, deeper than expectations and reversing September’s uptick — steepest drop since July 2023.
- Decline driven mainly by a sharp collapse in food prices, the biggest fall in at least a decade.
- Fuel prices continued to contract (-2.55%), broadly unchanged from September.
- Manufacturing inflation eased to 1.54%, the softest since October 2024, with notable slowdowns in food products, leather goods, and cement & plaster.
- Government attributes moderation to GST cuts and easing in categories such as oils & fats, vegetables, fruits, eggs, footwear, cereals, transport and communication.
Vegetable prices are rising in the marketplace, underscoring that the benign headline print is not reflective of true easing in retail prices. Overall, the inflation decline is heavily base-driven, with limited real-sector cooling, and risks firming up as the base effect fades. The historic inflation low is therefore overwhelmingly statistical, masking persistent underlying price pressures outside food.
4.2 As per Moody’s India Outlook (2026–27) released last week
- India to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with GDP projected at 7% in 2025, 6.4% in 2026, and 6.5% in 2027.
- Growth anchored by robust domestic demand, government-led infrastructure spending, and resilient household consumption; private investment remains cautious.
- Export diversification offsets punitive 50% US tariffs; India’s exports rose ~6.7% in September despite an 11.9% drop in shipments to the US.
- Neutral-to-easy monetary policy supported by low inflation (projected 3.5% in 2026, 4% in 2027) and strong capital inflows.
- India among top G-20 performers alongside Brazil; global backdrop marked by tariff tensions, diverging monetary policies, and reordered trade alliances.
India’s growth resilience is powered by domestic demand, infrastructure investment and agile export reorientation, keeping it the standout performer in an uncertain global economy.
4.3 Govt approves ₹25,060 crore Export Promotion Mission through two schemes for six years (from FY26) to counter high U.S. tariffs (50% on Indian goods since Aug 27).
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- Niryat Protsahan (₹10,401 cr): Affordable trade finance for MSMEs—interest subvention, export factoring, collateral guarantees, e-commerce export credit cards, credit enhancement for market diversification.
- Niryat Disha (₹14,659 cr): Non-financial support—quality & compliance, branding & packaging, trade fairs, export warehousing & logistics, inland transport support, trade intelligence, capacity-building.
- Priority support for sectors hit by global tariff hikes: textiles, leather, gems & jewellery, engineering goods, marine products.
- Mission targets structural bottlenecks: costly trade finance, compliance burdens, weak branding, fragmented market access, and logistics gaps in interior regions.
India’s ₹25,060-crore Export Promotion Mission aims to shield exporters from steep U.S. tariffs by strengthening MSME trade finance, compliance readiness, branding, and logistics through two targeted schemes.
4.4 As per data released by Ministry of Corporate Affairs,
- Business closures eased in FY26, with company shutdowns falling to 10,417 (from 11,359) and LLP closures dropping to 3,758 (from 4,556) between April–October.
- At the same time, new registrations hit record highs: 137,393 companies and 51,461 LLPs incorporated, signalling strong entrepreneurial momentum.
- The decline in failures alongside rising incorporations expands the corporate base and reflects economic resilience despite external pressures.
- Faster and simplified exit processes via the C-PACE centralised electronic system (launched 2023) sharply reduced voluntary closure timelines from over 2 years to ~2 months.
- Streamlined regulations under Section 248(2) of the Companies Act and Section 75 / Rule 37 under the LLP Act have facilitated quicker, liability-cleared voluntary exits.
India’s strengthened “ease of entry and exit” regime is enabling fewer business failures and record new formations, underscoring robust economic dynamism.
# 5 PE/VC
5.1 As per report released by Red Seer Consultants last week,
- India’s Deeptech sector is on a fast growth trajectory, with its market potential set to reach ₹2.66 lakh crore (US$30 billion) by 2030, driven primarily by defence innovation and a booming global robotics landscape.
- Deeptech opportunity has expanded 2.5× in five years, currently valued at ₹79,785–1,06,380 crore (US$9–12 billion) in FY25, fuelled by progress in defence systems, autonomous platforms, and robotics.
- National defence spending has doubled over the last decade to ₹7.09 lakh crore (US$80 billion), outpacing the growth rates of major global powers and catalysing demand for advanced defence technologies.
- India is emerging as a trusted, cost-efficient global tech hub, especially in robotics, benefiting from strong engineering capabilities and competitive manufacturing.
- The global robotics market is poised to grow from ₹5.32 lakh crore (US$60 billion) to nearly ₹20.39 lakh crore (US$230 billion) by 2030, with humanoid robots forming a key ₹88,650-crore (US$10 billion) segment.
- India enjoys a 73% cost advantage in humanoid robot production versus the US, enabled by efficient integration, affordable talent, and optimised sourcing networks.
- High-potential near-term opportunities lie in autonomous systems, AI-enabled training, intelligent drones, and next-gen propulsion technologies.
Together, these forces position India to become a formidable global Deeptech powerhouse, anchored in defence-led innovation and cost-competitive technological leadership.
5.2 DFS (Ministry of Finance) launched the Startup Common Application Journey on the Jan Samarth Portal during the Public Sector Banks Review Meeting in New Delhi last week.
- Provides a single digital platform for startups to access and compare credit options across all Public Sector Banks.
- Enables startups to apply for loans, compare offers, and track applications through a unified, seamless digital process.
- Supported by a Model Loan Scheme, offering loans up to ₹20 crore under the Credit Guarantee Scheme for Startups (CGSS) implemented by NCGTC under DPIIT.
- Integrates key data sources — PAN, GST, Udyam, ITRs, Credit Bureaus — to ensure faster processing and greater transparency.
- Offers special interest concessions for women entrepreneurs, enhancing inclusivity in startup financing.
Overall, the initiative streamlines startup credit access while strengthening transparency, speed, and inclusivity in the public-sector lending ecosystem.